William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2008
MICHIGAN
Posted at 6:43 p.m. ET
There are reports that Sarah Palin, who may have better instincts than anyone else on the McCain team, disagrees with the campaign's decision to pull out of Michigan. Good for Sarah.
In an interview with Fox News today, vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin said she questioned the decision by John McCain’s campaign to pull its resources out of Michigan.
According to a story posted on Fox News’ Web site, Palin she and her husband would “be happy” to campaign in Michigan, which the McCain campaign announced Thursday it would be pulling resources from to concentrate on efforts elsewhere.
And...
The McCain campaign did not immediately respond to questions from the Free Press whether Palin’s desire to stump in Michigan could change the campaign’s prior decision, either allowing her to visit Michigan on behalf of the ticket or possibly convince McCain’s strategists to let staff remain and TV ads to be purchased again.
Now, guys, let's get imaginative. Sarah Palin should say, very publicly, "I want to go to Michigan. People are hurtin' there. My husband is a member of United Steelworkers of America, and we don't abandon our people."
Then, she goes to Michigan with her union-member husband and tears across the state. It would be electric. Could she turn the state around? I have no idea. Would it be great campaign theater, that would excite the base, and maybe a good number of independents throughout the nation? You betcha.
Oh, wait. I'm not allowed to say that. I'm Eastern. I worked in Washington. I should have said, "I'll place a wager with you."
Yuch.
Get Sarah to Michigan. Great move.
October 3, 2008. Permalink 
UPDATE AT 3:03 P.M. ET: The House has now passed the bailout package, 263-171. The key point is that the House passed the Senate version, which means no negotiating between the houses of Congress will be needed. Bush will sign.
COMMENT: The political question here is whether McCain can push the presidential debate beyond the economic tsunami we just experienced, and get back on track. The Dems will do everything they can to milk the issue, and the press will oblige with daily, breathless reports on Wall Street numbers. We hope that Americans will, in the last month of the campaign, focus on other issues as well.
TRACKERS
Posted at 2:57 P.M. ET
All four trackers are now out. The last, Gallup, has Obama up seven, a gain of two from yesterday. As previously reported, Hotline has Obama up six, Rasmussen seven, Battleground five.
Three of the four trackers now have Obama up by more than five, and moving into landslide territory. It is incredible. This question mark, about whom the media will tell us so little, could win the presidency by Reaganesque margins, and bring a leftist Congress with him.
Sarah Palin has done her part to prevent this, but I wonder if any minds were changed by the vice-presidential candidate. The next presidential debate is Tuesday. Obama won the first simply by appearing presidential. His campaign has no real substance. Even the much-heralded enthusiasm for him as "the one" has largely evaporated, except among the young, the African-American, and the fringes. Americans seem ready to punish the Republicans, yet show very little confidence in the man they may well anoint on election day. There is no reason to believe that McCain will change anything Tuesday. Obama wins just by standing there and doing a good impersonation of a president.
Add to this a financial crisis whose timing will not be investigated by any mainstream publication, and the greatest press bias in recent history, and we have a perfect storm.
I suspect McCain knows this, and it has him beaten down. I believe that the next two weeks, not four, are the most critical of the race. If McCain gets out there, uses Sarah Palin effectively, and closes to within three points by October 17th, he can close the deal. If he can't, he'll just drift, discouraged, toward defeat.
As Dick Morris points out, McCain has tactics, but doesn't seem to have a strategy. Maybe we'll see a change in the next few days. We'd better.
My audio today is on the subject of October surprises. (Go here.) There could be such a surprise, but McCain can't wait for one. We now need the fighter pilot, not the getalong senator.
As Mike Scully points out, John Hinderaker at Power Line has suggested that Sarah Palin do some talk radio every day. Great idea.
We have a month. This country has depended on John McCain before. It needs him again.
October 3, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 11:18 A.M. ET: Two more trackers are out. Hotline has Obama up six. They had him up five yesterday. But Battleground, which had Obama up five yesterday, has him up three today.
UPDATE AT 9:55 A.M. ET: Rasmussen, just out, continues to show Obama up seven, unchanged from yesterday. The survey was done before last night's vice-presidential debate. Trackers are taken over a three-day period, so the first reaction to the debate won't be evident until results are posted tomorrow. Monday's results will include surveys taken entirely after the debate.
BROOKS ON SARAH
Posted at 8:12 a.m. ET
Most of the editorial comment I've researched this morning is pretty predictable. The self-righteous, self-appointed "observers" of American life continued their condescending attitude toward Sarah Palin. It will take time for the medicine to wear in. Right now, many "journalists" just hope to run out the clock on John McCain.
David Brooks of The New York Times passes the sobriety test. I think he gives an accurate assessment of what happened last night:
There are some moments when members of a political movement come together as one, sharing the same thoughts, feeling the same emotions, breathing the same shallow breaths. One of those occasions occurred Thursday night when Republicans around the country crouched nervously behind their sofas, glimpsed out tentatively at their flat screens and gripped their beverages tightly as Sarah Palin walked onto the debate stage at Washington University in St. Louis.
There she was, resplendent in black, striding out like a power-walker, and greeting Joe Biden like an assertive salesman, first-naming him right off the bat.
Just as the midcentury psychologist Abraham Maslow predicted, Republicans watching the debate had a hierarchy of needs. First, they had a need for survival. Was this woman capable of completing an extemporaneous paragraph — a collection of sentences with subjects, verbs, objects and, if possible, an actual meaning?
By the end of her opening answers, it was clear she would meet the test. She spoke with that calm, measured poise that marked her convention speech, not the panicked meanderings of her subsequent interviews.
And, of course, the subsequent interviews were edited for broadcast, and you had the feeling that those doing the work were members of "Editors for Obama."
On Thursday night, Palin took her inexperience and made a mansion out of it. From her first “Nice to meet you. May I call you Joe?” she made it abundantly, unstoppably and relentlessly clear that she was not of Washington, did not admire Washington and knew little about Washington. She ran not only against Washington, but the whole East Coast, just to be safe.
To many ears, her accent, her colloquialisms and her constant invocations of the accoutrements of everyday life will seem cloying. But in the casual parts of the country, I suspect, it went down fine. In any case, that’s who Palin is.
Which is why so many "ordinary" Americans love her.
Biden, for his part, was smart, fluid and relentless. He did not hit the change theme hard enough. He did not praise Barack Obama enough. But he was engaging, serious and provided a moving and revealing moment toward the end, when he invoked the tragedy that befell his own family and revealed the passion that has driven him all his life.
Still, this debate was about Sarah Palin. She held up her end of an energetic debate that gave voters a direct look at two competing philosophies. She established debating parity with Joe Biden. And in a country that is furious with Washington, she presented herself as a radical alternative.
By the end of the debate, most Republicans were not crouching behind the couch, but standing on it. The race has not been transformed, but few could have expected as vibrant and tactically clever a performance as the one Sarah Palin turned in Thursday night.
Good, good, good.
October 3, 2008. Permalink
SARAH
Posted at 7:15 a.m. ET
The poll results following last night's debate are pretty much what we'd expected - Biden won on substance, Palin on everything else. Palin was the star, Biden the experienced debater. People talked about Palin after the debate. Biden was the other guy.
Sarah Palin saved John McCain's campaign once again, just as she saved it by being that electric figure who thrilled the conservative base of the Republican Party at the convention. No, she didn't have Biden's knowledge, and no one could say, after the debate, that she was the most "qualified" to be vice president. But she reached people and moved them. The Washington-Ivy League axis may hate her, but I'm reminded of the old political explanation for why New York City has rent control - because there are more tenants than landlords, and the tenants vote. There's a big country out there, and very few of its residents went to Princeton or work inside the Washington beltway.
Sarah won by not losing, and she did more. Again, she became the most talked-about of the four candidates, this time for doing well. Gone was the Sarah of the sit-down interviews. Back was the Sarah we loved.
I don't know if her performance will move the McCain/Obama preference polls. Voters may have a second thought and lean toward the more experienced Biden over the more exciting Sarah. Also, the mainstream media will spin this the way it's spun everything else this season, and continue its in-the-tank-for-Obama "reporting."
But Sarah has given McCain breathing room.
The question is: What does John McCain do with this moment? Had Sarah collapsed, the race would have been over. She's provided a relaunching platform for the remainder of the campaign. Now McCain must seize the chance. He's got to come alive again, take Sarah with him and go on a nationwide whistlestop tour. The two together are dynamite. The two apart are far less effective.
I'm sure McCain understands that Sarah is the star attraction. A national train tour will be a great show, and that's what McCain needs right now.
Apparently, Sarah was prepped by the McCain A-team. That A-team does good work. I hope they've got the next stage planned right now. This race can be turned around.
October 3, 2008. Permalink
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2008
UPDATE AT 11:14 P.M. ET: I'm getting the sense that the Democrats realize they've had a bad night. Sarah Palin redeemed herself, became the Sarah of the convention again, and connected with the average American. I don't know what Tina Fey will do with this, but I'd like to find out.
UPDATE AT 10:54 P.M. ET: A Frank Luntz focus group at Fox gave the debate to Palin, and clearly was impressed by her. Luntz said that the polls will change. I'm feeling better about this.
We'll now begin our blogging during the vice-presidential debate, which is taking place in St. Louis.
9 P.M. ET: The vice-presidential debate is about to begin. We'll be on live.
9:05 P.M. ET: Biden speaks first. He attacks the economic policies of the Bush administration. Apparently, there was no Congress. I didn't know that.
9:09 P.M. ET: Sarah speaks. Very fluid. Doing well. Makes a gentle attack on the Democrats. Sounds informed. A very different Sarah than we saw in interviews with anchor types.
9:13 P.M. ET: Caught Biden sneering at Palin. Not good. But also not good that Palin ducks Biden's charges that McCain is an anti-regulation extremist.
No one is winning this debate right now. But Palin isn't losing it. She's coming off as aggressive and reasonably knowledgeable.
9:20 P.M. ET: Biden just gave a forceful statement on health care. He was knowledgeable, if boring. Can't deny that he knows his stuff. But minute by minute, he's getting more aggressive, and I hope we see the obnoxious Biden pretty soon.
9:24 P.M. ET: Sarah is holding her own. She tends to avoid specifics, and to get vague, but she's forceful and confident. However, the pattern of not answering questions specifically is starting to hurt. Biden comes off as knowledgeable, but Palin comes off as more passionate and committed.
9:30 P.M. ET: Sarah begins to falter. She just won't deal with the issues presented by the moderator, and keeps going back to the subject she knows - energy. The audience wil notice this, but she makes up for it with a fluid, confident approach. I hope it works.
9:34 P.M. ET: They're now dealing formally with energy. Palin is knowledgeable, whereas Biden recites the global-warming mantra. Palin is winning this one. When she knows the subject, she's great.
9:41 P.M. ET: They're on foreign policy. Palin gave a good answer on Iraq, and now Biden is speaking. This is his area. He speaks with authority. But Sarah answers well. She's holding her own on Biden's turf. That's the key. Palin is not embarrassing herself. No one can laugh at her now.
9:52 P.M. ET: Anyone familiar with the facts knows that Biden is stretching them on foreign-policy issues. You'd think Barack Obama was a super hawk. But Biden knows the details and Palin is not a great authority. But again, Sarah isn't sinking. Right now she's rambling a bit. She went off the track just a little, and she seems in unfamiliar territory as they get into the subject of nuclear weapons. I wish they'd get back on turf that she knows well.
Biden is winning this brief section of the debate because he knows so much. He's pouring it on. I have to admit that he's effective. This is the weakest part of the debate for Sarah.
10:03 P.M. ET: Biden's authority in foreign policy, despite an erratic and often disappointing record, is showing. But Sarah is now striking back. She hasn't got Biden's weight, but she's standing up well to the pressure.
10:15 P.M. ET: About 15 minutes to go. The impressions have been set. No one is winning, but Sarah - who's the main attraction - is coming off respectably. I would imagine that polls might show Biden as the winner because, without question, he has a more authoritative image. But Sarah has the ability to speak to the hearts of the average citizen. Look, you just never know what impact she has. Of the two people up there, she's the more fascinating. You want to hear more from her. Biden, very knowledgeable, sounds like a Washington pol.
10:25 P.M. ET: The debate is winding down. The characteristics of the candidates continue. Biden knows his stuff, but is Washington. Sarah doesn't have the details at hand, but has a sincerity and understanding of people.
Biden is now attacking McCain, and is effective. On balance, he simply comes off as a pro, and we'll have to see how that plays. As I've said, I think polls might show him as the winner because of that polish. He's been around the block. But Sarah is not disgracing herself. The McCain campaign has not imploded tonight, which was the fear.
10:32 P.M. ET: The final statements have been given. Sarah was fine, but I'm afraid Biden was a little more polished.
QUESTION: Were any minds changed tonight? I doubt if there'll be any significant shifts. I think Sarah was helped by a fluidity and sense of comfort. Biden wasn't obnoxious. Beyond that, let's wait for measurements of public opinion.
FIGHT
Posted at 8:11 p.m. ET
Discussion-show host Mike Scully (http://WWW.WVOX.com) alerts us to an excellent piece by Peter Kirsanow at NRO Online's "The Corner." Kirsanow shows how to put a little fight in the GOP, something that's lacking these days. Like many conservatives, he's disgusted by the marshmallow behavior of his fellow Republicans:
The refrain from most of the GOP talking heads over the last twenty four hours concerning Gwen Ifill's role during the VP debate is that she's a fine journalist, who, now that the fact of her book is public knowledge, shouldn't be precluded from moderating the event. Heck, it may even work to Palin's advantage because Ifill will be under intense scrutiny to be fair and balanced.
This rationale points to the GOP's ( and, to some extent, conservatives') nearly wholesale capitulation to liberal media dominance and is one of the reasons the GOP base find themselves so frequently dispirited: no objection, no fight, no pushback to a howling conflict of interest.
Well said.
So many times we see Republicans act "gentlemanly" and turn the other cheek —to what end? It simply emboldens the media toward even greater bias. How does that serve the interests of the country? Democrat fingerprints are all over the current financial mess; Dodd and Frank were integral to the debacle, yet the GOP does nothing to counter the prevailing narrative that this is a McCain—House Republican problem—and McCain's poll numbers plummet.
The party has become, for some reason, pre-Reagan. It will pay the price.
The conclusion of McCain's convention speech exhorting us to "fight, fight, fight" has been quickly forgotten. There's no honor in failing to challenge brazen media bias and distortion.
But, you know, there are friends, Washington pals, some good reporters at lunch...
The GOP seems to depend on Rush Limbaugh to correct the record, and query where we'd be without him? But the GOP better start doing it's job and forthrightly, aggressively challenge blatant media transgressions each and every time they occur. The economy's at stake. Success in the war on terrorism is at stake. The Supreme Court is at stake. Do your duty. And part of that duty is not meekly surrendering to rank media bias.
And that's a rallying cry I can believe in. Wake up, McCain crowd.
October 2, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 5:10 P.M. ET: From The New York Times: Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as concerns about the tightening flow of credit and the worsening economy outweighed the prospects of a quick passage of the government’s bailout plan.
COMMENT: The Dow was down 348 points. The bailout is no cure-all.
POLLS
Posted at 4:43 p.m. ET
The four trackers out today tell the same story. Slight gains for Obama, building on an already solid lead. Rasmussen: Obama up seven; Gallup: Obama up five; Battleground: Obama up five; Hotline: Obama up five. Other "standard" polls released in the last day or so have Obama up anywhere from three to nine points.
The situation is tough for McCain, but not impossible. However, press bias is, in my view, playing a controlling role in the contest. The press can keep a story alive or kill it, and it will keep the economic story alive, no matter what happens. Should Sarah Palin do poorly tonight, that could be milked. The press tastes blood, and wants more. We have never had a situation quite like this.
You get the sense that McCain is demoralized, having taken a body blow from the financial chaos, which, by coincidence I'm sure, happened to occur right at the moment when it could hurt him most. When McCain gets demoralized, he stops fighting. The wind is taken out of him.
The voter reaction to the economic convulsion is utterly irrational. Democratic mortgage policies had far more to do with this trauma than Republican mismanagement. Some of the "statesmen" in Congress who were applauded last night for their work on the bailout package were the same ones responsible for the mess. But the media won't report it that way.
The Republican cause depends immediately on Sarah Palin. A triumph by her tonight could restart the McCain effort. And because the public would see it, the press couldn't do much to destroy it. But a failure might be fatal.
Tune in. We'll be blogging throughout this crucial night.
October 2, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 4:28 P.M. ET: From The Politico: John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play. McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.
COMMENT: Actually, Obama pulled out of a couple of states recently, and no one described it as a stunning move. Michigan was always problematical. It isn't only the economy, it's the Detroit vote. This election is tough, but it's not over. There's more than a month to go.
UPDATE AT 9:53 A.M. ET: From The Politico: Hours ahead of the vice presidential debate, Sen John McCain (R-Ariz.) criticized the selection of PBS' Gwen Ifill as moderator because she is writing a book called "The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama." “Frankly, I wish they had picked a moderator that isn’t writing a book favorable to Barack Obama — let's face it," McCain said on "Fox & Friends." "But I have to have to have confidence that Gwen Ifill will handle this as the professional journalist that she is. ..."
COMMENT: Nice that McCain finally noticed there was a conflict of interest, in contrast to his pandering-to-Gwen statement yesterday. And her professionalism is a bit of a joke. She's an intense partisan who's misused her position for years.
UPDATE AT 9:48 A.M. ET: Rasmussen, just out, shows a seven-point lead for Obama, the largest ever Rasmussen has shown in this election year. McCain also scores his lowest favorability rating, 52 percent, since June.
COMMENT: The election is clearly Obama's to lose. If present trends continue, and I hope they don't, he can have a landslide victory that will give him unprecedented momentum in January - a young, heady, inexperienced man becoming president at a critical point in our history, boosted to power by a press that will not criticize him. The pressure on Sarah Palin, tonight, is enormous.
UPDATE AT 9:03 A.M. ET: Some grim polling news. The Battleground tracker, which had John McCain up two only four days ago, now has Obama up five, consistent with other polls. I don't know what gives with this poll. The swing of seven points in so short a time doesn't feel right. I wonder if they're adjusting their methodology. We'll await Rasmussen, about half hour from now. (UPDATE: Apparently Battleground has indeed adjusted its methodology, accounting for the change. See here. Thanks to reader Carl Hardwick for the alert.)
UPDATE AT 8 A.M. ET: From Real Clear Politics. The McCain people are pushing back on some of the latest, depressing polls:
McCain pushback on Florida polls: "Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans.
McCain pushback on Q-polls: "These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they're true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2%, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track - if not tighter."
At least someone in the McCain camp is fighting.
THE MOMENT
Posted at 7:18 a.m. ET
We've said before at Urgent Agenda that the word "crisis" is overused. Ronald Reagan used to ridicule the crisis-every-minute crowd, noting that most problems roll into a ditch long before they reach you.
With that in mind, though, we have to be concerned about the current moment. Today may well be the most important day of the current presidential race. Sarah Palin's performance in tonight's debate may well determine whether John McCain's campaign can be relaunched again, as it was when she was first selected, or whether it will sink into mutual accusation, backbiting and fading numbers. Never has the performance of a vice presidential choice been so crucial - largely because it reflects on the person who made that choice. Expectations for Palin are low. We hope for a surprise. We need one.
It is perhaps symbolic of the absurdity of the moment that the proceedings will be presided over by one Gwen Ifill. I'm reminded, as I am often, of Humphrey Bogart's line in Casablanca: "Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine." Of Ifill we can say: "Of all the journalists in all the news outlets in all the world, they picked her." As we noted here yesterday, Ifill has a huge conflict of interest - she is publishing a book on inauguration day whose sales depend on Obama being elected. And yet, she is chosen to moderate a debate that may determine if that result will occur. As Greta Van Susteren wrote, in law that would cause a mistrial.
And yet, the profession of journalism seems unconcerned about Ifill's conflict of interest, and Ifill's haughty dismissal of public concern - see yesterday's last story below, "Ms. Ifill Regrets" - is symbolic of the slipshod standards of our time. Why couldn't they simply pick someone else to reassure us that the debates will be held to the highest standard, not the lowest? The first person who should ask for a switch of moderators should be Barack Obama. That would be change we can believe in.
This occurs against a backdrop of economic trauma. It occurs against a din of threats, some of them dire, coming from abroad. None seems as important to our journalistic guardians as whether Sarah Palin once accepted a small gift as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.
Victor Davis Hanson, the resident historian of the age of terror, sums up brilliantly the condition in which we find ourselves. With all due respect to the Gipper, some of these problems don't seem headed for any available ditch:
Ancient thinkers from Thucydides to Cicero insisted that money was the real source of military power and national influence. We've been reminded of that classical wisdom these last three weeks.
In a manner not seen since the Great Depression, Wall Street went into panic mode from too many bad debts. The symbolic pillars of American monetary strength for years -- AIG, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Shearson-Lehman and Washington Mutual -- in a matter of hours either went broke, were absorbed or were reconstituted. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed like the house of cards that they were.
And, the implications:
Allies trust that the United States is the ultimate guarantor of free communication and commerce -- and they want immediate reassurance that their old America will still be there. In contrast, opportunistic predators -- such as rogue oil-rich regimes -- suddenly sniff new openings.
We've seen the connection between American economic crisis and world upheaval before. In the 1930s, the United States and its democratic allies, in the midst of financial collapse, disarmed and largely withdrew from foreign affairs. That isolation allowed totalitarian regimes in Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia to swallow their smaller neighbors and replace the rule of law with that of the jungle. World War II followed.
We are seeing the result:
It was no surprise that an emboldened Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once again last week called for the elimination of Israel. He's done that several times before...
...And he spouted his Hitlerian hatred in front of the United Nations General Assembly -- in New York, just a few blocks away from the ground zero of the Wall Street meltdown...
...Flush with petrodollar cash, a cocky Iran thinks our government will be so sidetracked borrowing money for Wall Street that disheartened taxpayers won't care to stop Tehran from going nuclear.
Hanson is right.
At about the same time, a Russian flotilla was off Venezuela to announce new cooperation with the loud anti-American Hugo Chavez and his fellow Latin American communists. The move was a poke in the eye at the Monroe Doctrine -- and a warning that from now on the oil-rich Russians will boldly support dictatorships in our hemisphere as much as we encourage democratic Georgia and Ukraine in theirs.
And more...
The lunatics running North Korea predictably smelled blood as well. So it announced that it was reversing course and reprocessing fuel rods to restart its supposedly dismantled nuclear weapons program.
Our historic role:
The natural order of the world is chaos, not calm. Like it or not, for over a half-century the United States alone restrained nuclear bullies, kept the sea lanes free from outlaws and corralled rogue nations. America alone could provide that deterrence because we produced a fourth of the world's goods and services, and became the richest country in the history of civilization.
Finally...
Should that heart of American financial power in New York falter -- or even appear to falter -- then eventually the sinews of the American military will likewise slacken. And then things could get ugly -- real fast.
And who will we choose to lead us through this chaos? We will decide a month from Saturday. Will we choose a devoted, if somewhat eccentric public servant whose dedication to his country cannot be questioned? Or will we choose a kid from the Chicago machine whose dedication to his own ambition also cannot be questioned? On that choice will depend our fate for the next four years.
October 2, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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